BTC Horizon
Experimental public beta · Probabilities are model outputs, not financial advice or trading signals.
Public accountability

Forecast track record

Every official forecast remains visible after maturity. Inputs, probabilities, and outcomes cannot be rewritten, so the record includes both successes and failures.

Published 99
Awaiting outcome 36
Resolved 61
Invalid 2
Evidence runway

How much independent evidence exists?

The forward sample is still accumulating. Performance figures are descriptive, not evidence of proven predictive skill.
24hEarly evidence · 25/30
7dVery early · 4/30
30dVery early · 1/30

The 30-observation marker is a review checkpoint, not a claim of statistical proof. Adjacent long-horizon forecasts overlap, so this view counts only forecasts whose evaluation windows do not overlap within the same horizon.

Live forward test

Resolved performance

formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1
24hN=30
Brier0.2511
Direction43.3%
Median error$946
80% coverage93.3%
7dN=27
Brier0.2631
Direction18.5%
Median error$2,089
80% coverage100.0%
30dN=4
Brier0.2929
Direction0.0%
Median error$7,238
80% coverage100.0%

Adjacent 7d and 30d forecasts overlap. The performance API also exposes a separate non-overlapping sample.

Daily model behavior

24h prediction versus reality

30 resolved of 33 published 43.3% direction accuracy · $946 mean absolute error

Each orange point is the median price predicted at 00:00 UTC. The white line is the nearest eligible BTC/USD outcome at its 24h target.

Predicted median Actual outcome
Daily 24-hour Bitcoin price predictions and actual outcomes Orange shows the model median prediction and white shows the price observed 24 hours later for resolved forecasts. $87,609 $84,804 $81,998 $79,193 $76,387 Sep 29 Oct 6 Oct 13 Oct 20 Oct 27 Nov 1 2026-09-29 predicted $83,442 2026-09-30 predicted $83,685 2026-10-01 predicted $83,574 2026-10-02 predicted $84,892 2026-10-03 predicted $84,545 2026-10-04 predicted $84,785 2026-10-05 predicted $86,523 2026-10-06 predicted $85,829 2026-10-07 predicted $85,598 2026-10-08 predicted $83,317 2026-10-09 predicted $81,770 2026-10-10 predicted $82,596 2026-10-11 predicted $82,953 2026-10-12 predicted $83,715 2026-10-13 predicted $81,811 2026-10-14 predicted $83,137 2026-10-15 predicted $81,614 2026-10-16 predicted $82,173 2026-10-17 predicted $81,541 2026-10-18 predicted $81,423 2026-10-19 predicted $82,019 2026-10-20 predicted $81,885 2026-10-21 predicted $82,982 2026-10-22 predicted $84,123 2026-10-23 predicted $81,269 2026-10-24 predicted $81,074 2026-10-25 predicted $80,830 2026-10-26 predicted $80,064 2026-10-27 predicted $80,050 2026-10-28 predicted $80,848 2026-10-29 predicted $81,292 2026-10-30 predicted $77,810 2026-11-01 predicted $77,473 2026-09-30 outcome $83,493 2026-10-01 outcome $84,802 2026-10-02 outcome $84,490 2026-10-03 outcome $84,744 2026-10-04 outcome $86,480 2026-10-05 outcome $85,772 2026-10-06 outcome $85,534 2026-10-07 outcome $83,244 2026-10-08 outcome $81,729 2026-10-09 outcome $82,531 2026-10-10 outcome $82,912 2026-10-11 outcome $83,680 2026-10-12 outcome $81,830 2026-10-13 outcome $83,093 2026-10-14 outcome $81,573 2026-10-15 outcome $82,132 2026-10-16 outcome $81,500 2026-10-17 outcome $81,383 2026-10-18 outcome $81,978 2026-10-19 outcome $81,817 2026-10-20 outcome $82,801 2026-10-21 outcome $84,081 2026-10-22 outcome $81,249 2026-10-23 outcome $81,033 2026-10-24 outcome $80,707 2026-10-25 outcome $80,040 2026-10-26 outcome $80,010 2026-10-27 outcome $80,800 2026-10-28 outcome $81,279 2026-10-29 outcome $77,771
EditionReferencePredicted medianHigher probabilityActual 24h priceAbsolute errorDirection
2026-11-01 $77,434.42 $77,473.15 50.77% — — Pending
2026-10-30 $77,771.09 $77,809.98 50.77% — — Invalid
2026-10-29 $81,251.02 $81,291.65 50.77% $77,771.09 $3,520.57 Missed
2026-10-28 $80,807.43 $80,847.85 50.77% $81,278.76 $430.91 Correct
2026-10-27 $80,010.12 $80,050.14 50.77% $80,800.42 $750.29 Correct
2026-10-26 $80,023.86 $80,063.88 50.77% $80,010.12 $53.76 Missed
2026-10-25 $80,789.34 $80,829.74 50.77% $80,039.68 $790.06 Missed
2026-10-24 $81,033.24 $81,073.76 50.77% $80,707.21 $366.55 Missed
2026-10-23 $81,228.31 $81,268.94 50.77% $81,033.24 $235.70 Missed
2026-10-22 $84,080.52 $84,122.57 50.77% $81,248.87 $2,873.71 Missed
2026-10-21 $82,940.14 $82,981.62 50.77% $84,080.52 $1,098.90 Correct
2026-10-20 $81,844.43 $81,885.36 50.77% $82,800.56 $915.20 Correct
2026-10-19 $81,977.89 $82,018.89 50.77% $81,816.93 $201.96 Missed
2026-10-18 $81,382.54 $81,423.25 50.77% $81,977.89 $554.64 Correct

The chart retains up to 45 daily editions; the table shows the latest 14. “Correct” evaluates only whether the model placed more or less than 50% probability on the direction that occurred.

Honest benchmark

Model versus simple baselines

Lower Brier scores are better. A complicated model only adds value if it consistently improves on simple frozen alternatives using comparable forward outcomes.

Model24h Brier / N7d Brier / N30d Brier / NResolved
Experimental modelformula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 0.2511 / 30 0.2631 / 27 0.2929 / 4 61
Probability calibration

Predicted versus observed

A well-calibrated model's observed frequency should approach its average predicted probability as samples accumulate.

0–20%
No samples
20–40%
No samples
40–60%
51.5% → 29.5% N=61
60–80%
No samples
80–100%
No samples
Immutable archive

Monthly results

Calculated from locked forecasts and locked resolutions, grouped by their target month.

2026-11N=2
Brier0.2818
Direction0.0%
2026-10N=59
Brier0.2584
Direction30.5%
Permanent record

Every forecast edition

Newest first
GeneratedHorizonModelReferenceMedianOutcomeStatus
2026-11-01 00:01 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $77,434.42 $77,473.15 Matures 2026-11-02 00:01 UTC View active
2026-11-01 00:01 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $77,434.42 $77,705.92 Matures 2026-11-08 00:01 UTC View active
2026-11-01 00:01 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $77,434.42 $78,604.69 Matures 2026-12-01 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-30 00:01 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $77,771.09 $77,809.98 No valid reference price from the edition source was available within the resolution tolerance. View invalid
2026-10-30 00:01 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $77,771.09 $78,043.76 Matures 2026-11-06 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-30 00:01 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $77,771.09 $78,946.44 Matures 2026-11-29 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-29 00:01 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,251.02 $81,291.65 $77,771.09 2026-10-30 00:00 View resolved
2026-10-29 00:01 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,251.02 $81,535.89 Matures 2026-11-05 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-29 00:01 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,251.02 $82,478.97 Matures 2026-11-28 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-28 00:01 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,807.43 $80,847.85 $81,278.76 2026-10-29 00:01 View resolved
2026-10-28 00:01 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,807.43 $81,090.75 Matures 2026-11-04 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-28 00:01 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,807.43 $82,028.68 Matures 2026-11-27 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-27 00:01 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,010.12 $80,050.14 $80,800.42 2026-10-28 00:01 View resolved
2026-10-27 00:01 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,010.12 $80,290.65 Matures 2026-11-03 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-27 00:01 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,010.12 $81,219.32 Matures 2026-11-26 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-26 00:01 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,023.86 $80,063.88 $80,010.12 2026-10-27 00:01 View resolved
2026-10-26 00:01 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,023.86 $80,304.44 Matures 2026-11-02 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-26 00:01 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,023.86 $81,233.27 Matures 2026-11-25 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-25 00:01 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,789.34 $80,829.74 $80,039.68 2026-10-26 00:01 View resolved
2026-10-25 00:01 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,789.34 $81,072.60 $77,409.84 2026-11-01 00:01 View resolved
2026-10-25 00:01 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $80,789.34 $82,010.31 Matures 2026-11-24 00:01 UTC View active
2026-10-24 00:04 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,033.24 $81,073.76 $80,707.21 2026-10-25 00:04 View resolved
2026-10-24 00:04 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,033.24 $81,317.35 $77,203.87 2026-10-31 00:04 View resolved
2026-10-24 00:04 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,033.24 $82,257.90 Matures 2026-11-23 00:04 UTC View active
2026-10-23 00:03 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,228.31 $81,268.94 $81,033.24 2026-10-24 00:02 View resolved
2026-10-23 00:03 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,228.31 $81,513.11 $77,854.10 2026-10-30 00:03 View resolved
2026-10-23 00:03 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $81,228.31 $82,455.92 Matures 2026-11-22 00:03 UTC View active
2026-10-22 00:03 UTC 24h formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $84,080.52 $84,122.57 $81,248.87 2026-10-23 00:02 View resolved
2026-10-22 00:03 UTC 7d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $84,080.52 $84,375.32 $81,277.72 2026-10-29 00:03 View resolved
2026-10-22 00:03 UTC 30d formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1 $84,080.52 $85,351.24 Matures 2026-11-21 00:03 UTC View active

Probabilistic analytics only. Forecasts are not guarantees, trading signals, or financial advice.