Inside a fixed Bitcoin forecast: a worked example
Reproduce the current BTC Horizon 24-hour formula, separate its assumptions from evidence, and see why a rising median does not prove an edge.
Bitcoin probability intelligence
A clearer view of what comes next.
Compare Bitcoin prices across providers. Explore transparent price scenarios, monitor your targets, and follow every forecast through to its outcome.
Six native USD sources
UTC timestamps
Versioned models
Experimental public beta · Provider prices are for comparison. Forecasts use only CoinMarketCap BTC/USD inputs and outcomes, with fixed return and volatility assumptions.
Explore Free and Plus →
BTC
Bitcoin display reference
$77,497.58
Updated 00:31 UTC
Native USD
Data quality · Good
Multi-provider display average · separate from the CMC model input. Latest CMC quote: $77,476.51 · Nov 1 00:29 UTC.
Rolling 24 hours
Real BTC/USD · Native reference prices sampled every 5 minutes
24h change
+0.43%
Oct 31 00:31 UTC
Low $77,041 · High $77,624 · 100.0% coverage
Nov 1 00:31 UTC
BTC / EUR
€69,754
Providers
6/6
Dispersion
0.294%
Source pulse
CoinMarketCap
$77,422
Blockchain.com
$77,477
Bitfinex
$77,649
Bitstamp
$77,476
Gemini
$77,492
Coinbase
$77,471
Experimental research outlook
Probability, across time.
24h
Unvalidated POC
51%
Model-implied chance of finishing above the issue price
51
Model-implied 80% range
Not a guarantee
$74,934
$80,098
Median estimate
$77,473
CMC issue price $77,434.42
Issued Nov 1 00:01 UTC · Target Nov 2 00:01 UTC
7d
Unvalidated POC
52%
Model-implied chance of finishing above the issue price
52
Model-implied 80% range
Not a guarantee
$71,130
$84,890
Median estimate
$77,706
CMC issue price $77,434.42
Issued Nov 1 00:01 UTC · Target Nov 8 00:01 UTC
30d
Unvalidated POC
54%
Model-implied chance of finishing above the issue price
54
Model-implied 80% range
Not a guarantee
$65,275
$94,657
Median estimate
$78,605
CMC issue price $77,434.42
Issued Nov 1 00:01 UTC · Target Dec 1 00:01 UTC
Interactive target lab
Choose a price or probability.
Calculate the other.
Check the chance of Bitcoin ending beyond a price target, or choose an end probability and calculate its corresponding price.
Price to probability
or
Probability to price
Probability of ending above $154,869
—
—Touch probability
v1Barrier model
Understand the estimates
Read the evidence.
Why 30 daily Bitcoin forecasts are not 30 independent tests
A timeline example showing overlapping horizons, matched baselines, and why the size of a forecast ledger can overstate the strength of evidence.
A missed forecast is part of the evidence: the October 14 incident
An original BTC Horizon operations case study: a SQLite lock, a missing private forecast, and why late reconstruction must stay out of forward scores.
Follow your scenarios
Start with one question worth following.
Explore for free. Plus adds more monitored scenarios, alerts, daily briefings and weekly reviews for €9 a month or €90 a year. Every plan uses the same experimental forecasts.
Built for scrutiny
Confidence comes from showing the work.
BTC Horizon keeps the data lineage visible, the methodology versioned, and uncertainty explicit.
Visible price sources
Compare provider quotes. The model uses only CMC BTC/USD quotes; the display average does not feed its calculations.
One coherent distribution
Direction, median, ranges, and target outcomes come from the same assumptions.
Permanent audit trail
Provider attempts, failures, timestamps, aggregates, and model editions are retained.
Probabilities, not promises
General analytics only—never certainty, financial advice, or a trading signal.