Experimental CMC edition

Evidence, as it accumulates.

This is the original fixed-parameter formula with CMC inputs. Its track record starts with this edition. Older models and replacement candidates remain private; no dependable predictive advantage has been established.

formula-v1-poc-cmc-v1

experimental headline

The original fixed-parameter POC formula, unchanged, with CMC BTC/USD reference and outcomes. No demonstrated predictive edge. Its new CMC track record starts at publication; older multi-provider results are not validation of this edition.

36 pending · 61 resolved · 2 invalid

24hN=30 / independent 25

Brier0.2511

Direction43.3%

Median error$946

80% coverage93.3%

7dN=27 / independent 4

Brier0.2631

Direction18.5%

Median error$2,089

80% coverage100.0%

30dN=4 / independent 1

Brier0.2929

Direction0.0%

Median error$7,238

80% coverage100.0%