Guide 015 min
Bitcoin probability forecasts, explained
What a Bitcoin probability forecast says, what it does not say, and why ranges are more honest than a single price target.
Read the guide Open research notes
Understanding forecasts before trusting them.
Short, plain-language guides to probability, validation, and the standards BTC Horizon applies to its own research.
Guide 026 min
Why backtesting is not enough
A practical explanation of chronological backtests, locked tests, and why a forecasting model still needs forward evidence.
Read the guideGuide 035 min
Brier score for Bitcoin forecasts
How the Brier score evaluates probability forecasts and why confidence is punished when the outcome goes the other way.
Read the guideFollow the validation process
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