Guide 016 min
Inside a fixed Bitcoin forecast: a worked example
Reproduce the current BTC Horizon 24-hour formula, separate its assumptions from evidence, and see why a rising median does not prove an edge.
Read the guide Open research notes
Understanding forecasts before trusting them.
Worked calculations, evaluation guides and operational case studies from BTC Horizon. Follow the assumptions, inspect the evidence, and understand the limitations before interpreting a probability.
Published by Marcos Mendes. Read the model methodology.
Guide 025 min
Why 30 daily Bitcoin forecasts are not 30 independent tests
A timeline example showing overlapping horizons, matched baselines, and why the size of a forecast ledger can overstate the strength of evidence.
Read the guideGuide 035 min
A missed forecast is part of the evidence: the October 14 incident
An original BTC Horizon operations case study: a SQLite lock, a missing private forecast, and why late reconstruction must stay out of forward scores.
Read the guideGuide 045 min
Bitcoin probability forecasts, explained
What a Bitcoin probability forecast says, what it does not say, and why ranges are more honest than a single price target.
Read the guideGuide 056 min
Why backtesting is not enough
A practical explanation of chronological backtests, locked tests, and why a forecasting model still needs forward evidence.
Read the guideGuide 065 min
Brier score for Bitcoin forecasts
How the Brier score evaluates probability forecasts and why confidence is punished when the outcome goes the other way.
Read the guideFollow the validation process
Inspect the public forecast record and explore a scenario of your own.